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March
28, 1999
 Important
note: I'm sorry to announce that both the address
of this web site and my e-mail address will change in
late March.
If you would like to be notified by e-mail of the new
address, please send a note to Dan Latham.
Also, because of various
computer problems, I may not be able to update this page
for the next two weeks. I hope to have all the problems
resolved by the middle of April. Thank you for your
patience.
Now on-line:
1999 Pacific and
Central League schedules.
1999 Japanese baseball preview:
After a controversial off-season
which included the suicide of an Orix BlueWave scout and
allegations of a spy scandal, Japanese professional
baseball is hoping for a fresh start when the season
begins April 2.
This year offers several big
changes. In March, the twelve teams participated in a
pre-season tournament to test the popularity of
interleague play. During the tournament, the recently
completed Seibu Dome was opened. Under the new roof, the
playing field has been enlarged to meet Major League
standards, guaranteeing that every Pacific League home
run this year will be the real deal.
Four teams have swapped managers
while the rest have made big personnel changes. New
Hanshin skipper Katsuya Nomura, who guided the Swallows
to five pennants, will continue his famed rivalry with
Yomiuri manager Shigeo Nagashima. Roughly 30 new foreign
players are arriving this season, including two-time AAA
Most Valuable Player Roberto Petagine (Yakult) and former
Oakland A's slugger Mike Blowers (Hanshin).
Lions pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka,
who led his high school team to a championship at Koshien
last summer, will likely compete against Daiei slugger
Ryo Yoshimoto for the Pacific League Rookie of the Year
award. Chunichi shortstop Kyosuke Fukudome and two
Yomiuri youngsters, pitcher Koji Uehara and shortstop
Tomohiro Nioka, will vie for the CL honor.
Aside from the pennant races, this
season should offer several compelling subplots. Hanshin
manager Nomura hopes that popular
outfielder-turned-pitcher Tsuyoshi Shinjo can compile
more strikeouts from the mound than he usually does
swinging a bat. Yomiuri home run king Hideki Matsui will
try to be the first Japanese player to hit 50 home runs
this decade, Yokohama relief ace Kazuhiro Sasaki will
attempt to break any relief records not already in his
hefty collection, and Orix superstar Ichiro Suzuki, last
seen training with the Seattle Mariners, aims to become
the first player on either side of the Pacific to bat
.400 since Ted Williams did it in 1941.
At the end of this season, Sasaki
will be a free agent and Ichiro reportedly wants to be
traded to a major league team. This may be the last year
for local fans to see them up close.
Central League:
This season, it looks as if three
teams -- the Yokohama BayStars, Yomiuri Giants and
Chunichi Dragons -- have a good shot at the Central
league pennant while the other three clubs may need some
miracle performances to stay in the race.
BayStars: After struggling
nearly four decades to win their second Central League
pennant, the BayStars may not have to wait long for their
third. Though it could be certainly argued that Yokohama
is an average team that won the 1998 Japan Series because
all of their players had "career years," there
are at least four reasons that the BayStars are the team
to beat this year: 1) their offense is one of the
strongest in Japan; 2) Yokohama boasts one of the
youngest rosters in Japan; 3) manager Hiroshi Gondo has
taken pains to make sure his team remains healthy and
consistent.; 4) Gondo has implemented a pitching plan
that helps each hurler reach his full potential; 5)
reliever Kazuhiro Sasaki is one the best closer in Japan.
Yokohama's batting has been
steadily improving for the last five years, and it's
unlikely their machine gun offense will suddenly jam.
Except for first baseman Norihiro Komada and second
baseman Bobby Rose, Yokohama has one of the youngest and
most injury-free line-ups in the Central League. Though
the BayStars would be vulnerable if either catcher
Motonobu Tanishige (age 29) or shortstop Takuro Ishii
(also 29) become sidelined, Hitoshi Nakane can fill any
hole in the outfield while former Boston Red Sox
infielder Arquimedez Pozo can take over third base,
second, or first. Although Yokohama's outfield corners
are weak, Tanishige is a solid backstop, and the team has
an all-gold glove infield. Because manager Gondo keeps
line-up changes to a minimum, Yokohama's batters can rely
on their instincts rather than worrying about who is
batting before or after them.
Gondo's greatest success has been
introducing a coherant pitching plan. A former Rookie of
the Year pitcher who burned his arm out after five years
of overwork, Gondo rarely allows his starters to throw
more than 100 - 110 pitches in a game. After the sixth or
seventh inning, the bullpen takes over. When Yokohama has
a slim ninth-inning lead, Sasaki (45 saves, 0.64 ERA)
will protect it. Gondo's strategy not only lends a sense
of consistency to his pitching staff, but it reduces the
chance that key players will become injured.
Aside from acquiring Pozo and
23-year-old rookie pitcher Eiji Yano, the BayStars made
few off-season changes. Considering the strength of their
team, they didn't have to.
Giants: If any team can take
the Central League pennant away from Yokohama, it should
be the Giants. One reason the Giants have the highest
payroll of any Japanese team is that they've got some of
the best players, including 1998 home run king Hideki
Matsui, gold glove right fielder Yoshinobu Takahashi, 384
career-home run slugger Kazuhiro Kiyohara, career 3.19
ERA hurler Hiromi Makihara and Sawamura Award-winning
pitchers Masumi Kuwata and Masaki Saito. It's only a
slight exaggeration to say the Giants are an all-star
team unto themselves. Why then have the mighty Kyojin
placed fourth and third in a six-team league the last two
seasons?
Part of the problem is that
while35-year-old Makihara, 31-year-old Kuwata and
34-year-old Saito were dominant pitchers five years ago,
all three are showing signs of age. Kuwata, for his part,
hasn't been the same since returning from elbow surgery
in 1997. Yomiuri's other top starter, Balvino Galvez, a
headhunter with a short fuse who turned 35 last month,
remains one of the most dominant pitchers in Japan.
Galvez led the CL in hit batters (9) despite missing the
last two months of the season after he was suspended for
throwing a ball at an umpire. Although the Giants have
several strong prospects in the pipeline, few are likely
to have an impact this season.
If the Giants do overtake the
BayStars, they'll have their power-hitting offense to
thank for it. Last season, Yomiuri led the CL in home
runs (148), and Matsui will be looking for his second
straight crown. Takahashi has been swinging a hot bat
during the pre-season and may have his own eye on the
home run title. Third baseman Daisuke Motoki can come
through in the clutch while second baseman Toshihisa
Nishi, left fielder Takayuki Shimizu and shortstop
Tomohiro Nioka will all struggle to get on base so the
team's sluggers can drive them home.
Though Yomiuri's defense has been
burdened by several slow or aging sluggers (Kiyohara,
Katsumi Hirosawa, Hiroo Ishii to name a few), the Giants
will probably have one of their best defensive years in
recent memory. But one has to wonder why gold
glove-winner Takahashi patrols right field while clumsy
slugger Matsui remains in center? Is first baseman
Kiyohara's defense that bad? Or maybe the Giants want to
give their top hitter a more visible defensive position.
As long as the Giants continue to value the show more
than the win, they'll likely crumble under their own
arrogance.
Dragons: Although the
Dragons trailed Yokohama by less than five games for most
of last September, Chunichi may have a tough time staying
near the top this year. The biggest problem for the
Dragons is how they plan to score any runs.
Of those players who compiled
enough at bats to compete for league titles, Koichi
Sekikawa led the Dragons with a .285 batting average
while Leo Gomez (.274, 26 home runs) and Takeshi Yamazaki
(.255, 27) offered some punch and Lee Jeong Bum (.283,
10) stole 18 bases. Aside from compiling the most team
steals and walks in the Central League, the Dragons
offense offered very little to get excited about. Only
the Hanshin Tigers scored fewer runs (450) than the
Dragons (488). True, Chunichi's new home favors pitchers
more than almost any other CL park, but that's little
consolation when the Dragons scored just 30 more runs
than their opponents last season.
Pitching was Chunichi's strength
last season, and they compiled a best-in-Japan 3.14 team
ERA with 904 strikeouts (second highest out of twelve
teams) and 454 walks (second lowest). Kenshin Kawakami
(14-6, 2.57 ERA) won Rookie of the Year honors while
Shigeki Noguchi (14-9) led the CL with a 2.34 ERA. But
the rest of Chunichi's starting rotation -- Ken Kadokura
(10-9, 3.40) and Masa Yamamoto (9-9, 3.66) -- were less
impressive. Yamamoto will be 34 this season and relief
ace Sun Dong Yol (29 saves, 1.48 ERA) is 36. Both showed
signs of age last season. Korean lefty Samson Lee and
34-year old right-hander Kazuhiro Takeda (13-10, 3.62 ERA
with Daiei) will likely compete for the fifth starter
position.
Although the Dragons have a solid
bullpen, manager Senichi Hoshino rules his team with a
haphazard hand. Last year, he allowed Noguchi to throw
200 pitches in one game for no reason whatsoever. This
season, Hoshino will further tax Chunichi's already
strained defense by moving erratic shortstop Lee to
center field to make room for prospect Kyosuke Fukudome.
There's little reason to think 1999
will be a much better year for the Dragons. Chunichi's
pennant hopes rest on too many ifs -- if Yokohama and
Yomiuri self-destruct.... if Fukudome can hit .300 with
20 home runs... if Kawakami can avoid the sophomore
jinx... if Yamamoto and (burned out lefty) Shinji Imanaka
can recover their Sawamura Award-winning touch... if Lee
can go a whole season without injury... if Sun can keep
chugging along... if Yamazaki could win a home run
crown...
Swallows: This year, Yakult
figures to be the Central League wild card. The Swallows
could be the team to beat. In 1998 Sawamura Award winner
Kenjiro Kawasaki, fastball pitcher Tomohito Ito and
"King of K" Kazuhisa Ishii, the Swallows have
three of the finest starting pitchers in Japan. Assuming
new arrival Jason Jacome can stay healthy the entire
season and Kazuya Tabata can return to his pre-1998 form,
Yakult could have the most devastating starting rotation
in Japan. But that assumes they have a consistent
bullpen.
One of Yakult's biggest problems
last season was their lack of a reliable closer. Shingo
Takatsu, who had filled that role for several years,
pitched erratically in 1998 and eventually earned a trip
to Yakult's minor league sqaud. The inconsistency of the
Swallows' bullpen, in turn, affected their starting
rotation because former manager Katsuya Nomura would
often overwork his starters by leaving them in as long as
possible. Although no one was able to effectively fill
Takatsu's shoes last season, the Swallows appear ready to
replace him with Mark Acre at the first sign of trouble.
Though Yakult's pitchers have a
solid defense (particularly down the center, though they
could have trouble along the foul lines) to back them up,
they may not be able to depend on a lot of runs. Injuries
have taken their toll, and will continue to do so after
the season starts on April 2. Though Mark Smith has
returned to action after suffering a broken finger in
February, right fielder Atsunori Inaba, Japan's Charlie
Hustle, will likely miss most if not all of the season
due to injury. Second baseman Katsuyuki Dobashi will miss
opening day because of knee surgery, while his back-up,
Hatsuhiko Tsuji, has been suffering shoulder pain. Last
week, the Swallows announced that center fielder and
lead-off batter Tetsuya Iida will miss opening day
because of a dislocated shoulder.
The acquisition of Mark Smith and
Roberto Petagine will surely help the Swallows score
runs, and Atsuya Furuta remains the best backstop in
Japan, and a great clutch hitter. But with all the
injuries Yakult has suffered, Furuta may not be able to
find a clutch in which to hit. Look for the Swallows to
get off to a slow start, but slowly climb their way up
the standings as their injured members return to the
field.
Tigers: Though he may be
regarded as one of the finest managers in Japan, anyone
expecting Katsuya Nomura to lead the Tigers to a Japan
Series championship this season is likely to be
disappointed. When Nomura took over the Swallows in 1990,
he led Yakult to a 58-72 (fifth place) finish, and
improvement of only three wins over the previous season.
With the Swallows, he arguably had a lot more talent to
work with than he does now with Hanshin. Rebuilding takes
time, and Nomura's job has barely begun.
In nearly every batting category
last year, the Tigers finished last in the league. Though
their meager .242 team batting average and 86 home runs
may be influenced by Koshien Stadium's spacious foul
territory and deep outfield walls, their 28 steals and
933 strikeouts -- the worst figures posted by any
Japanese team -- can't be rationalized away. Hanshin's
offense is in sorry shape.
With shortstop Makoto Imaoka (.293
average), second baseman Yutaka Wada (.272), and
outfielder Tomoshika Tsuboi (.327), Nomura does at least
have something to build on, though none of the three hit
with much power. To add a little power to their line-up
the Tigers signed former Oakland A's slugger Mike Blowers
and first baseman Mark Johnson. Considering their ages
(Blowers is 34, Johnson 31), neither will likely have a
long-term impact on the team, so their acquisition seems
aimed more at convincing fans that the Tigers are serious
rather than fixing what really ails Hanshin.
Hanshin's pitching situation
doesn't look much better. Despite playing their home
games in one of Japan's most extreme pitchers parks, the
Tigers allowed more hits (1,246) than any other Japanese
team while compiling the fewest strikeouts and allowing
the second highest number of walks in the CL. Keichi Yabu
(11-10, 3.51), Tetsuro Kawajiri (10-5, 2.84) and Darrell
May (4-9, 3.47) were Hanshin's top starters last year,
but Nomura will need to find at least two more arms to
round out the rotation. Closer Ben Rivera (27 saves, 2.38
ERA), whose velocity decreases with each pitch, may
continue to be effective as long as Nomura resists the
urge to have him pitch more than one inning a game.
Hanshin simply has too many
problems to be seriously considered as a pennant
contender this year. With the exception of Tsuboi, their
outfield is a mess. The addition of Blowers and Johnson
-- who were both acquired for their batting -- probably
won't do much to improve the Tigers defense along the
foul lines. Hanshin has several pitching prospects on the
farm, but it's unclear when they'll be ready to do some
heavy lifting on the varsity team. Since center fielder
Tsuyoshi Shinjo is no asset in the line-up, Nomura might
as well give him a shot at pitching. In Akihiro Yano,
Nomura may have found a catcher he can work with -- but
Yano is no Atsuya Furuta. The Swallows probably wouldn't
have won four pennants this decade without their two-time
MVP backstop... regardless of Nomura.
Carp: Hiroshima has only
dropped into the Central League cellar once in he last 25
years. 1999 will probably be their second trip to the
bottom. Though the Carp usually sink like a rock when
mid-summer injuries plague their roster, it seems
unlikely that Hiroshima will even get off to a solid
start.
After losing Luis Lopez a year ago,
the Carp offense has been struggling to make things
happen. Tomoaki Kanemoto (.253, 21 home runs), Tomohiro
Maeda (.335, 25), and gold glove winner Koichi Ogata
(.326, 15) still form one of the best outfields in Japan
but they are starting to show the effects of age and
injury. Leg problems have slowed Maeda down, forcing him
to move to right field, while new center fielder Ogata
missed a large chunk of last season after crashing into
an outfield wall. The left side of Hiroshima's infield --
including third baseman Akira Eto (.253, 28) and
shortstop Kenjiro Nomura (.282, 14) -- should hold
together for at least one more season. But the right side
could be a mess. Second baseman Eddie Diaz has a good
glove but he's been having trouble hitting the ball
recently (a .200 average in 13 pre-season games). The
Carp don't have a first baseman, but they'll try to fill
the hole with weak-fielding Kojiro Machida or Itsuki
Asai. Timoniel Perez, who's been nursing a leg injury for
the past month, will likely bounce between first base and
the outfield.
At this point, the Carp only have
one reliable starter, import Nathan Minchey (15-11, 2.75
ERA). A year after giving up his starting role to Kanei
Kobayashi, Shinji Sasaoka (5-11, 3.79) has yet to fully
readjust to the starting rotation. The hottest Hiroshima
hurler this year appears to be Tsuyoshi Kikuchihara (4-0,
4.22 ERA in 5 pre-season games), but he's lucked out by
getting run support when he needs it most. Kobayashi
meanwhile will have to struggle to avoid the sophomore
jinx that has plagued past Rookies of the Year Yasuyuki
Yamauchi and Toshikazu Sawasaki.
For the Carp to put together a
winning season, they'll need all of their regular
position players to stay healthy and their starting
rotation to start firing on all cylinders. It's unlikely
that either will happen.
Pacific League:
Unlike the Central League race, the
PL pennant chase is wide open. Last year, only 9.5 games
separated the first place Lions from the last place
Marines, and that competitive balance should continue
this year. Almost every PL team made significant changes,
but the Fighters and Buffaloes appear to have made the
strongest off-season acquisitions. The pennant race may
very well turn on which teams made the best moves over
the Winter months.
Fighters: In a six team
league this evenly matched, the Fighters might have the
edge simply because they filled addressed their problem
areas better than the other five. Not perfectly, but
better.
In the last two seasons, the
Fighters have made improvements in their power-hitting
and base-running. In 1998, they hit 150 home runs (best
in Japan) and stole 91 bases (only the Lions swiped
more). They were hitting really well in the first half,
but their bats fell silent after the all-star break.
Adding outfielder Micah Franklin (.329, 29 home runs at
AAA Iowa last year) should help. Third baseman Atsushi
Kataoka (.300, 17 home runs, 113 walks) and shortstop
Yukio Tanaka (.274, 24 home runs) may not be able to
repeat their 1998 performances, but other Fighters
batters are due for a good season: center fielder Tatsuya
Ide should be able to swipe 25 bases while outfielder
Katsuhiro Nishiura can hit .250 with 20 home runs and 20
steals. Two-time home run king Nigel Wilson should have
little trouble hitting 30 home runs this season. The
Fighters can hit for average, with power and speed -- the
key is getting them to do all three at the same time
through the entire season.
Nippon Ham's pitching staff had a
pretty good season in 1998, compiling a team 3.83 ERA.
They didn't get a lot of strikeouts (703 -- last in the
league), but they surrendered an average number of walks
are were pretty stingy with hits (1,160 -- the lowest
amount in the PL). To bring the Fighters a pennant,
23-year-old Satoru Kanemura (8-8, 2.73 ERA) and
28-year-old Hiroyuki Sekine (9-7, 3.36) need to stay
consistent while two others need to improve over their
1998 performance: Tsutomu Iwamoto (11-8, 4.11), Hiroshi
Shibakusa (7-11, 3.90), and Masaru Imazeki (9-6, 3.74).
Shannon Withem was brought in to replace Kip Gross, who
missed most of last season because of an elbow injury,
which should be a positive change. Nippon Ham's bullpen
should be in pretty good shape with set-up man Tsuyoshi
Shimoyangi (2-3, 5 saves, 3.07 ERA) and closer Erik
Schullstrom (7-3, 8, 3.00). Though Schullstrom's ERA may
seem a little high for the role he plays, he's been very
reliable, allowing runs in only seven of his 38
appearances last season.
Nippon Ham has the talent to
produce a first place finish. But all the wheels to me
moving in the same direction -- before and after the
all-star break.
Buffaloes: The Buffaloes
have a solid offense and some very good pitchers, but the
challenge for them this year is to get their starting
rotation back on track. In 1998, the Kintetsu pitching
staff compiled a worst-in-Japan 4.28 ERA.
In addition to treating Japanese
baseball fans to a rare treat -- a chance to watch a
knuckleball pitcher in action -- Rob Mattson (9-7, 3.55
ERA) is also one of his team's best starters, along with
23-year-old Masaki Maki (6-6, 3.89). To be competitive
this year, the Buffaloes will need comebacks from lefty
Hideo Koike (7-3, 6.81) and right-hander Akira Okamoto
(8-13, 4.04), both of whom were outstanding starters in
1997. After losing his relief job, Motoyuki Akahori (3-3,
4.21) has struggled to make the transformation to
starter, but he's a better pitcher than his 1998 stats
indicate, and the Buffaloes will need him to pitch his
best. Kintetsu, meanwhile, has one of the best bullpens
in the league. Akinori Otsuka led the PL with 35 saves
last season while 74 strikeouts in 55+ innings with a
2.11 ERA. Ace middle reliever Hiroki Sakai (6-1, 197)
will be joined by Shigeki Sano, who missed most of the
1998 season because of injury. If the starters can just
keep the Buffaloes in the game until the bullpen is
ready, the Buffs could be hard to beat.
Kintetsu's offense is led by
designated hitter Phil Clark, who, in addition to hitting
.320 with 31 home runs last season, set a new PL record
with 48 doubles. Though a knee injury slowed Tuffy Rhodes
down last season, the right fielder is capable of batting
.300 with 25 home runs. He's also a fine defensive
outfielder -- possibly the best all-around foreign player
in Japan (Yokohama's Bobby Rose is his only competition
for that title). Third baseman Norihiro Nakamura (.260,
32) can also drive in base runners like center fielder
Naoyuki Omura (.310, 23 steals) and catcher / outfielder
Koichi Isobe (.291 average). The Buffaloes have a good
outfield defense, but their infield could use a little
help and it would help things if they could find one
reliable backstop.
The Buffaloes have the potential to
win a pennant this year, but it all depends on how well
their starting rotation holds up under the strain of a
full season.
Marines: Things should have
gone differently from Lotte last season. The same team
lost a record 19-straight games and finished with a 61-71
record also scored more runs (581) than they allowed
(563). In theory, they should have finished the season
with a 67-65 record which would have been good enough for
a second-place tie.
Probably Lotte' biggest problem was
their lack of a bullpen through the first half of the
season. Both set-up man Toshihide Narimoto and closer
Yasuyuki Kawamoto missed the first half of the season
because of injuries. That, in turn, affected the Marines
starting rotation, who became overworked when former
manager Akihito Kondo refused to turn games over to his
erratic relief staff. By the time Kawamoto returned to
action, the Marines had already acquired Brian Warren,
who made his first appearance on July 10 and compiled a
0.93 ERA in 24 relief appearances. With both healthy this
season -- and the addition of left-handed starter Dean
Hartgraves and rookie Masahide Kobayashi -- the Marines
bullpen and starting rotation should improve. Lotte
compiled a team 3.70 ERA (second-best in the PL) last
season, helped partly by the pitcher-friendly dimensions
of Marine Stadium, and this year they may have the best
staff in the PL.
The large foul territory at Marine
Stadium makes their 1998 team .271 (PL best) batting
average all the more impressive. The loss of Julio Franco
may hurt the team's offense, but left-fielder Brent Brede
should be able to supply a steady stream of doubles and
singles. Frank Bolick, however, suffered a knee injury in
February and hasn't played in any pre-season games since
early March. It's unclear at this point how Bolick fits
into Lotte's regular season plans, but since the Marines
are most lacking when it comes to power-hitting, they may
have to rely on third baseman Kiyoshi Hatsushiba (.296,
25 home runs) to drive speedy runners Makoto Kosaka
(.233, 43 steals) and Koichi Hori (.241, 12 steals) home.
On the whole, Lotte's pitching will
probably improve more than their offense tails off. With
a strong bullpen, a 70-win season is not out of the
question.
Lions: In several areas, the
Lions will be entering the 1999 season a weaker team than
they were last season. The loss of Domingo Martinez, cut
from the team despite clubbing 30 home runs with a .283
batting average because he was too slow, will hurt
Seibu's offense because the team now has no reliable
slugger to knock the team's assortment of speedy runners
home. All-Star first baseman Taisei Takagi has been
sidelined with a leg injury for the last two months,
leading to speculation that manager Osamu Higashio will
put new import Archi Cianfrocco at third base and
shifting Ken Suzuki to first, where he will share
designated hitter duties with Takagi.
Cianfrocco appears to be a good
choice to man third base, assuming that he starts
hitting. In 13 games, he's compiled a .262 batting
average with only one extra base hit (a double) and 14
strikeouts (one whiff short of the league lead). Seibu's
other new import, Greg Blosser, is only batting .194 with
two home runs. Neither appears destined to have a great
impact on the Lions' offense.
Although the Lions led the PL with
a 3.66 team ERA last season, their bullpen is in
disarray. Manager Higashio can't seem to decide who his
closer should be. Last year, Shinji Mori, Fumiya
Nishiguchi, Denney Tomori, Takehiro Hashimoto and several
others all got a chance to earn some saves, but none of
them were deemed good enough to hold onto the role for
any extended period of time. Likewise, Higashio had a
hard time getting any consistent performances from his
starting rotation. Nishiguchi, in particular, pitched
several complete games over the course of the season, but
was usually chased out of each subsequent game after
giving up several early-inning runs. During his
pre-season appearances this year, Nishiguchi has
continued to pitch erratically. Still the Lions have
several quality right-handed starters, but they could
really used a lefty, something they overlooked when
signing right-handers Barry Manuel, who will probably
spend the season doing middle relief work, and rookie
Daisuke Matsuzaka. Like Nishiguchi, Matsuzaka has been
hot one day, cold the next.
Given all the negative changes,
it's rather hard to imagine the Lions winning as many
games as they did last season.
BlueWave: The loss of
reliever Masao Kida, who signed a contract with the
Detroit Tigers last November, will likely have a huge
impact on the BlueWave. Last season, Orix tried to use
him as a starter, but when their bullpen problems got
worse (and the team sank into last place), Kida was
shifted to the bullpen where, as a closer, he compiled
sixteen saves with a 1.29 ERA. At this point, however,
Orix doesn't have anyone who can fill the hole. Willie
Banks, who throws 97+ mph, may be tapped for the role,
but an article in the March 22 issue of Shukan
Baseball suggested that two right-handed youngsters,
Rui Makino and Kazu Maeda, will get first shot at the
closer spot. The same article suggested that Orix will
give priority to Mark Mimbs and Edwin Hurtado to fill the
two foreign player spots on the BlueWave pitching staff.
Concentrating on the young players
may not be a bad idea for Orix. In the past few years,
they have lost Kida, lefty reliever Takahito Nomura
(traded to the Giants for Kida), right-handed starter
Shigetoshi Hasegawa (to the Anaheim Angels, and they were
rebuffed when they tried to draft high school pitcher
Nagisa Arakaki in last year's draft. The cumulative
effect has been the overall weakening of the BlueWave's
pitching. Although top starter Nobuyuki Hoshino
floundered last season (6-10, 5.12 ERA), the gaunt lefty
has been looking like his old self recently. In addition
to Mimbs and Hoshino, the BlueWave will count on
right-hander Hiroshi Kobayashi (10-9, 3.59) and several
other lesser names to round out the rotation.
While their pitching staff may
suffer from bullpen inconsistency, the BlueWave should
have a strong offense. Ichiro Suzuki (.358, 13 home runs
last season) will be looking to bag an unprecedented
sixth-straight batting title while Troy Neel (.288, 28)
has a good chance of winning his second home run crown --
if he can out-slug teammate Yasuo Fujii (.250, 30).
Center fielder Yoshitomo Tani (.284, 10) and left fielder
/ catcher So Taguchi (.272, 9) are consistent performers.
Newcomer Robert Perez has a good shot at displacing
Harvey Pulliam for the second foreign position-player
roster spot. If his handling of pitchers is as good as
his hitting, second-year catcher Takeshi Hidaka could
solve the BlueWave's backstop problem.
With three foreign pitchers and
four imported batters, the BlueWave are clearly hoping to
meet any need. But without a reliable reliever to fill
the closer role, it seems unlikely the BlueWave will
finish the 1999 season with a winning record.
One last thought: It was
interesting to see that the Seattle Mariners chose to put
Ichiro Suzuki in the lead-off spot since Orix manager
Akira Ogi has refused to entertain the notion at all. For
the past five years, the five-time batting champion has
held the number three spot, even though he probably has
the speed to make more things happen in the lead-off
spot.
Hawks: Plagued by a
sign-stealing scandal and their parent company's
financial problems, If Daiei has any hope of bringing a
pennant back to Fukuoka this year, they're keeping those
plans to themselves.
Although it looks like third
baseman Hiroki Kokubo will return to Daiei's line-up this
year, the loss of first baseman Luis Lopez (released at
the end of last season) and top pitcher Kazuhiro Takeda
(fled to Chunichi after declaring free agency), is going
to hurt.
Without Takeda or any imported
hurlers, there's little reason to think the Hawks will
improve much on their 1998 team 4.02 ERA. Left-handed ace
Kimiyasu Kudo (7-4, 3.07 ERA in 93 2/3 innings) missed
most of last season and he may not do much good this year
either. If Daiei hopes of avoiding the cellar, they'll
need top-notch pitching from starters Tatsuji Nishimura
(10-10, 3.36), Hidekazu Watanabe (4-8, 5.18) Shintaro
Yoshitake (5-4, 4.58), and lefty Masahiro Sakumoto (6-6,
4.13). Unlike their starting rotation, Daiei's bullpen
looks solid, with 26-year-old right-hander Katsunori
Okamoto (2.91 ERA, 21 saves) acting as closer.
The Hawks' power-hitting offense
probably needs a bit more balance. Kokubo, Koichiro
Yoshinaga, Tadahito Iguchi and Kenji Jojima can all
probably hit 20+ home runs, but concentrating on making
contact instead of murdering the ball might help players
like Iguchi, who slugged 21 home runs last season but
compiled 121 strikeouts and an unimpressive .221 batting
average. Ignoring their most pressing need more quality
pitchers the Hawks have signed just one foreign player
for this season, Melvin Nieves, who's talent for slugging
resembles that of Iguchi, only with a somewhat higher
batting average.
With no disrespect to Nieves -- he
could bat .300 with 30 home runs and the Hawks would
still be ten games out of contention -- is this the best
Daiei can do? Unless the Hawks get serious about fixing
their pitching problems, this may be another very long
season.
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