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October
13, 1998
 Waiting 38 years to make their
second Japan Series appearance, the Yokohama BayStars are
hungry. Featuring a potent line-up, solid pitching staff
and the best reliever in Japan, the BayStars seized the
Central League-lead in mid-June and continued devouring
opponents until they clinched the flag four months later.
But make no mistake, the Seibu
Lions are one of the most talented teams in Japan. In
addition to the fastest line-up, the Lions feature the
most aggressive pitching staff in Japan. In their overall
level of talent and skill, Seibu more closely resembles a
Major League franchise than almost any other Japanese
team. The best run franchise in Japan, it's no
coincidence that the Lions have won thirteen Pacific
League pennants in the last seventeen years.
Balanced at first glance:
While both teams hold several distinct advantages over
one another, they also share much in common. Both clubs
have led their leagues in batting averages -- Yokohama
.277, Seibu .270 -- and although the Lions finished with
the best PL pitching (3.66 ERA), the BayStars compiled a
slightly lower 3.48 ERA (second-best in CL). Neither team
earned a Japan Series berth with their home run punch.
Seibu clubbed just 115 homers (4th in the PL) while
Yokohama tallied 100 (tied for third).
When it comes to speed, however,
the Lions (145 stolen bases) can run circles around the
BayStars (63). The Japanese media have already locked
onto this as one of the more interesting side stories of
this year's series -- can Yokohama catcher Motonobu
Tanishige stop the Seibu runners? It will be interesting
to see.
While Seibu relies on fancy
legwork, Yokohama prefers walks and doubles to score
runs. Six BayStars batters have hit 20 or more doubles
this season, compared to just three Lions hitters.
Yokohama, which scored 642 runs this season compared to
Seibu's 586, appears to have done more with their scoring
opportunities.
But the BayStars "machine
gun" offense will be put to the test against Seibu's
deep pitching staff, led by 1997 Sawamura Award-winning
right-handed starter Fumiya Nishiguchi. Yokohama's
ninth-inning ace, career saves leader Kazuhiro Sasaki,
will preserve any lead the BayStars get. While Seibu
needs to score early, Yokohama may have to wear down the
Lions starters and score runs against their less
formidable bullpen.
In no recent year has a Japan
Series sweep seemed more likely. But the reason for that
has little to do with pitching, hitting or running.
Consistency vs. improvisation: Despite
all possible surprises ahead, the outcome of this series
will likely be decided before the first game begins.
That's because the most important difference between the
two teams is Yokohama manager Hiroshi Gondo's consistency
and Seibu skipper Osamu Higashio's improvisation.
While seven of Yokohama's eight
position players have seen enough at bats to compete for
the league's batting title, only four Lions players have
had as much playing time. Gondo thinks consistency wins
ballgames and has been loathe to make any unnecessary
changes. One large reason for his team's "machine
gun" offense is that Yokohama's batters know their
place in the BayStars' line-up. Familiarity with the
players who are hitting before and after them fosters
confidence. Higashio, on the other hand, loves to tinker
with his team, platooning four of Seibu's positions, in
an effort to create a unique winning formula for each
game.
Meanwhile, the Seibu manager has
made almost weekly changes in his pitching staff,
including several overhauls. On the surface, the reasons
for his revolving door policy has to do with his
pitchers' performances, but even that can probably be
traced back to Higashio's expectations -- as long as a
starter is doing fine, leave him in, regardless of the
consequences.
Inconsistent pitching:
Nishiguchi, for example, pitched three complete games in
August only to be bombed out of his next two starts in
early innings. When the Seibu ace is throwing his best
stuff, he can outpitch any Yokohama starter. But at this
point, there's no telling which Nishiguchi we'll see in
the Japan Series. It's also unclear what to expect of the
other Seibu starters and even who they will be.
Presumably, Higashio will tap Takashi Ishii (9-3, 2.92
ERA) and possibly Hisanori Yokota (6-9, 3.35 ERA). How
Higashio plans to round out his rotation is anyone's
guess.
Seibu has the foundation of a good
bullpen, but Higashio has never taken the time to
organize his relievers. Over the season, he's had several
closers including Nishiguchi (when he was temporarily
banished to the bullpen last Spring), Shinji Mori,
Tetsuya Shiozaki, Denney Tomori, and countless others.
Sometimes Higashio's closer pitches one inning, but
usually the reliever will start out in the sixth,
seventh, or eighth inning and pitch as long as the
manager remains satisfied. Without a plan, it's no wonder
they've pitched inconsistently.
To be fair, not all of Higashio's
inconsistency has been his fault. Had Higashio managed a
team with as few injuries as Yokohama, he wouldn't have
had to test out so many young players throughout the
season. But going into the Japan Series, this will hurt
Seibu. The BayStars will be playing on intuition, but the
Lions will need to study their line-up cards before each
game. Reinventing the wheel every day taxes even the best
player's ability to adjust.
Smooth sailing: Gondo's
problems are less severe. Because he has used his
pitchers consistently all year, he knows what to expect
from them and the chances he'll make a wrong move are
slim.
While the first-year Yokohama
skipper inherited a solid offense, his best work has been
with his team's hurlers. Taking over from where 1997
manager Akihiko Oya left off, Gondo has kept his starting
pitchers on a five-to-six day rotation while usually
limiting them to just 100 pitches or six innings. As a
result, the BayStars may not have any aces in their
rotation, but they have four healthy starters with ERAs
under 3.40.
Gondo will be looking to get six or
seven strong innings from his four key starters: lefty
Hiroki Nomura (13-8, 3.38 ERA) and right-handers Takashi
Saito (12-5, 2.90), Daisuke Miura (12-6, 3.05) and Takeo
Kawamura (8-5, 3.19). If any of them get in trouble, look
for back-up starters Hisashi Tokano, Iori Sekiguchi, or
Kazuo Fukumori to pitch long-middle relief. Otherwise,
expect middle relievers Kiyotaka Nishi and Yukiya
Yokoyama to pitch the middle innings before giving way to
set-up man Hideki Igarashi and closer Sasaki.
Costly mistakes: Lacking a
coherent plan, Higashio's improvisations turned the 1997
series against the Lions. With the score tied in the
third game of last season's championship, Higashio
brought in pasture-bound star Hisanobu Watanabe to pitch
the eighth-inning only to have the washed up hurler
surrender four hits, including a home run, to lose the
game.
One has to wonder if either Terry
Bross (2-3, 5.74 ERA) or fading star Yukihiro Nishizaki
(1-0, 1 save, 0.00) will be this year's Watanabe. Bross
stayed on the farm team nearly the entire season after an
abysmal streak of starts in April. Higashio brought him
back up in October to pitch one game, presumably to see
if the former Swallows pitcher had anything left to
offer. Bross did pitch six shutout innings, but that was
a complete aberration in terms of his whole season.
Nishizaki, who was traded from the Fighters last November
and was unable to pitch much of this year, has been
nearly perfect in four relief appearances. But can the
34-year-old hurler handle the pressure of his first Japan
Series? It's a gamble that Higashio won't likely be able
to resist.
In an attempt to bolster his team's
offense at the Central League park, where the designated
hitter is not used, Higashio used stone-gloved DH Domingo
Martinez at first base and shifted first baseman Taisei
Takagi, who had never played in the outfield, to left
field. Disaster followed as both, understandably, botched
several plays. That kind of impulsive decision-making
will severely undermine Seibu's chances of winning the
Japan Series.
This year, Higashio will reportedly
use Martinez as a pinch-hitter in Central League parks
which should boost the team's defense. To make up for the
lost power, slugger Rudy Pemberton may start in
left-field for the Lions when they play in Yokohama. To
solve their DH problem, the BayStars may opt split up
their right-field platoon, leaving Hitoshi Nakane on the
field while Takahiro Saeki bats for the pitcher at Seibu
Dome.
Considering the talent on both
sides, this could be a very exciting series. But with
Higashio's blundering, it probably won't be long series.
Prediction: Yokohama in 5
games.
Positions:
Catcher:
Lions: Tsutomu Ito and
Satoshi Nakajima: Ito nearly won the 1997 PL MVP. A
decent hitter who's catching is considered the best in
the league by most critics. Nakajima is a good backstop
but not much of a hitter.
BayStars: Motonobu
Tanishige: A merely adequate hitter on a team with plenty
of good bats, Tanishige is decent catcher whose good arm
will be tested by Seibu's high-octane base runners.
Advantage: Lions
First base:
Lions: Taisei Takagi: A
young first baseman who combines decent hitting with OK
power but who often gets thrown out trying to steal.
Defense is getting better.
BayStars: Norihiro Komada:
Showing signs of age, Komada's a moderate batter, best
known for hitting grand slams. His defense is slipping.
Advantage: Lions
Second base:
Lions: Hiroyuki Takagi,
Norio Tanabe: Both Takagi and Tanabe offer decent
fielding but neither are much beside the plate.
BayStars: Bobby Rose:
Excellent batter, offers enough power to drive in runs
with doubles or homers. Competent fielding.
Advantage: BayStars
Third base:
Lions: Ken Suzuki: Good eye,
will walk if the pitches aren't in the strike zone. One
of Seibu's few power hitters, but hasn't been producing
in the clutch well this year. Defense is adequate.
BayStars: Tatsuya Shindo:
Probably better defense than Suzuki, but his hitting is
erratic. Moderate power and OK clutch hitting.
Advantage: Lions
Shortstop:
Lions: Kazuo Matsui: Likely
PL MVP this year. Seibu's top batter and base-stealer.
Hits well in the clutch and from both sides of the plate.
If Matsui chokes, the Lions will fall quickly. Good arm
and defense.
BayStars: Takuro Ishii: .310
hitter leading CL in steals. But defense a step down from
Matsui.
Advantage: Lions
Left field:
Lions: Koji Otsuka, Rudy
Pemberton, Yusuke Kawada, Masaji Shimizu, Makoto Sasaki:
Higashio has several choices in left field. Otsuka is
probably the most well-rounded player while burly
Pemberton may get the call to play left field at Yokohama
(where DH Domingo Martinez's home run bat will be
relegated to pinch-hitting). Shimizu is an effective
base-stealer and would be a likely pinch-runner for
either Pemberton or Martinez.
BayStars: Takanori Suzuki:
Two-time CL batting king, Suzuki offers a good balance of
power, contact-hitting and speed. Acceptable defense.
Advantage: BayStars
Center field:
Lions: Susumu Otomo: Speedy
24-year-old can steal bases, stretch doubles into
triples, but doesn't offer much power. Good defense.
BayStars: Toshio Haru:
Balls-over-brains defense fun to watch. Not much power
but can make contact and steal bases.
Advantage: BayStars
Right field:
Lions: Tatsuya Ozeki: A
young player Higashio used almost exclusively in the
second half, Ozeki bats and steals bases well.
BayStars: Takahiro Saeki and
Hitoshi Nakane: Saeki delivered some key hits in the
latter part of the season but his defense is not good
enough to hold onto a starting role. Nakane's defense is
better but he's not much as a hitter.
Advantage: BayStars
Starting pitching:
Lions: Fumiya Nishiguchi
(13-12, 3.38 ERA) may be the PL's best starter but he's
been erratic all year. If he's throwing his best stuff,
Lions will have a good chance to win any game he pitches.
But other Seibu starters will be tested against
Yokohama's contact-hitting offense. It isn't clear who
Higashio will tap, but Takashi Ishii (9-3, 3.29 ERA),
Hiroshi Shintani (5-8, 3.67), Kiyoshi Toyoda (8-6, 3.32)
Hisanori Yokota (4-2, 3.35) and Tetsuya Shiozaki (7-5,
4.05) are all possibilities.
BayStars: Despite having no
pitcher comparable to Seibu's Nishiguchi, the BayStars
staff as a whole is more consistent, healthier and better
organized. Expect to see Takashi Saito (13-5, 2.94 ERA)
and Daisuke Miura pitch game one and two. Lefty Hiroki
Nomura (13-8, 3.38) gives up a lot of hits but has
excellent control and walks few batters. Takeo Kawamura
(8-6, 3.32) leads the league in home runs given up.
Advantage: BayStars
Relief pitching:
Lions:
Probably have more raw talent and options than Yokohama,
but that could be a problem for manager Higashio as it
increases the chances he will make the wrong choice. It
doesn't look like Higashio has made any distinction
between typical relief roles -- middle relief, set-up,
closer -- among his pitchers. Denney Tomori (7-4, 8
saves, 2.60 ERA), Shinji Mori (8-7, 5, 3.80) and lefty
Takehiro Hashimoto (1-4, 5, 3.80) are the team's most
likely closers.
BayStars: Kazuhiro Sasaki
(1-1, 45 saves, 0.64 ERA) is Japan's best closer. He's
got a 95 mph fastball and a forkball that has been
described as "unhittable." If the BayStars
carry a lead into the ninth, consider the game over.
Hideki Igarashi may be the best set-up pitcher in Japan
at the moment but the rest of Yokohama's bullpen is less
distinguished.
Advantage: BayStars
The Japan Series begins
on Saturday, October 17 at Yokohama Stadium.
Reader Response:
Shame about the Dragons [not
winning the pennant] - never mind - The BayStars had to
win some time or another!
In fact, I'm pleased for the
BayStars fans - or should that be old Taiyo Whales fans -
for they have had a long wait. The reason I support the
Dragons was that they were at the bottom of the league
when I started to enjoy watching baseball on TV. From
that point of view, the BayStars have been an underdog
for even longer so they deserve my cheer.
I don't get to see any J-ball games
here, so all I can do is follow your web page and the
digest. Therefore my opinions are not based on anything
more than gut feelings. Regarding the Japan Series, I
hope that the BayStars win. The Lions have won enough
things in the past. Gondoh kantoku seems a reasonable guy
as well, although the teams owners/management seem like a
nasty piece of work.
It would also be interesting to see
how Seibu cope with the Daimajin (he is famous isn't he -
even my older sister, who has no interest about baseball,
and lives in England knew about him) . When the BayStars
were called Taiyo Whales, I always thought that their
Uniforms were really naff - and I could not see them win
the pennant race wearing that gear. Its taken five years
since the name change.
Not much of an opinion I suppose -
I envy you being able to watch all those baseball games.
Atsuhiro Takeda
England
Regarding the Japan Series:
It's exciting to see the BayStars
making a run at respectability. I think that everyone in
the U.S. was pulling for the Chicago Cubs in the playoffs
over here, and for similar reasons, I'm sure that the
BayStars have captured the hearts of many Japanese.
However, I feel that they're still a year away from
claiming the championship. The Lions have a well balanced
attack featuring speed, power, and pitching, but more
importantly, they've got Japan Series experience.
My prediction...Seibu in six games.
I think that it will be a low scoring affair, and in that
situation, I think that Seibu has the pitching edge. Look
for a big contribution from Rudy Pemberton coming off the
bench for the Lions in pinch-hitting situations.
I wish that there was some way to
get a peek at some of the games. Are video tapes ever
produced? While I was over there last year, I taped a few
games on TV, and I still go back and watch them over and
over.
While I was in Japan last year, I
also attended a few games and got to see the Lions play.
The Buffaloes beat them, thanks to Phil Clark's RBI
double.
But the Lions almost came back in
the ninth. A pinch-runner (sorry I don't have my game
notes with me, so I can't identify him) for the Lions
attempted a steal and was thrown out at second. It was a
close play (I think he was safe, but as a Buffaloes fan
I'd never admit it) and the enraged runner stood up and
gave the umpire a mighty shove. Naturally he was ejected,
but we rarely see that sort of thing over hear (save
Roberto Alomar). Of course, the Lions manager came
running out and also shoved the umpire. Quite
amusing....the Lions have fire!
Rob Brogna
Arlington, Massachusetts
I see this Japan Series as an
apparent mismatch. The BayStars appear to have the
advantage in all phases of the game. They have better
pitching and hitting. There is no equivalent of Sasaki or
Igarashi in the Seibu bullpen.
The Lions' only hope is to get into
high-scoring contests where long relief may play a part.
If the games get down to situational relief pitching,
Yokohama has too many weapons.
The Lions have been playing a
little better down the stretch than the BayStars, but it
hasn't been by such a noticeable amount. The Lions didn't
win the PL as much as they just survived it.
The BayStars, although they
stumbled slightly in the last couple of weeks, have been
solid from May on. Gondoh knows exactly what he wants to
do with his team and his players execute his plans
perfectly.
I think the Lions will be able to
win one game, but that will be it. The BayStars will
prevail in five.
Bob Timmermann
South Pasadena, California
It also looks like the Lions' Kazuo
Matsui will run all over Yokohama. The Drags stole three
against catcher Motonobu Tanishige yesterday. Onishi had
two, but I'm not sure how he and Matsui compare as base
stealers.
I still think, Yokohama in five if
not four. I want to think the Lions' post-season
experience counts for something, but I can't think it'll
do more than postpone the inevitable. Other minor points
in the Lions' favor -- the BayStars have never played in
that hellish half-dome before; I think Seibu's Tsutomu
Ito is a little better as a catcher than Tanishige, but
I'm not sure; anything else? Uh... uh....
Rob Magee
Tama City, Japan
I caught news this morning that the
Lions clinched the pennant. At least I have a team to
cheer against in the series. Had the Fighters met the
BayStars it would have been tough to figure who deserves
the crown more. The Lions, on the other hand, deserve a
swift four game sweep and a slap in the face.
J. Crandall
Tokyo,
Japan
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