 In
1998, the only safe prediction is that most predictions
will be wrong. While the race for the Pacific League
pennant may quickly be reduced to three teams, the
Central Loop is wide open, with nearly every club having
a good chance of prevailing in the hunt.But first, let's work our way up
the PL ladder.
Fighters:
Tumbling from second to fourth the last two years, the
Nippon Ham Fighters appear poised to drop even further.
Their two foreign sluggers--Nigel Wilson and Jerry
Brooks--may be able to keep the Tokyo Dome bleacher bums
scrambling for souvenirs all summer, but it won't do much
good if the Ham's pitching continues to erode. It's
unclear whether newcomer Eric Schullstrom or former Lions
hurler Takehiro Ishii can produce at the level of former
ace Yukihiro Nishizaki (when healthy). Though Kip Gross
pitched well during the pre-season, a bone spur in his
right elbow may require surgery. The Fighters could also
use a little more speed on the base paths.
Marines:
Despite losing Hideki Irabu, the Chiba Lotte
Marines managed to patch together a fairly decent
pitching staff last year. But even Julio Franco's
leadership won't lift the team's offense to A class.
Lotte's only hope of escaping the basement is if Nippon
Ham's pitching is worse than the Marine's hitting.
Hawks:
Without much pitching, the Hawks appear destined for
another fourth place finish. The acquisition of CL RBI
king Luis Lopez may be enough to fill in for the two
month absence of slugger Hiroki Kokubo (suspended for tax
evasion). Not accustomed to playing third base, Lopez
won't add much to the team's shaky defense. Until manager
Sadaharu Oh gets over his fixation on packing the team
with power hitters and concentrates on building a
reliable pitching staff, Fukuoka's glass ceiling will lie
just below third place
The
Lions, BlueWave and Buffaloes all appear headed on a
collision course for the loop flag.
Buffaloes:
Though they have dark horse potential, Kintetsu will have
to struggle to keep their pitching staff effective and
consistent. Tuffy Rhodes and Phil Clark led the team's
offense last year, and appear ready to do so again.
Lions:
If other PL managers took notes during last year's Japan
Series, the Lions could have a tough time staying on top.
Look for opponents to start pitching slugger Domingo
Martinez low and inside. The team's core starters (Fumiya
Nishiguchi, Tetsuya Shiozaki, Kiyoshi Toyoda and Takashi
Ishii) are solid, but there's not a lot of depth in their
relief staff. Catcher Tsutomu Ito and often-injured
outfielder Makoto Sasaki are both prone to offensive
downturns. Third baseman Ken Suzuki and shortstop Kazuo
Matsui can't carry the team's offense by themselves.
BlueWave:
Winners of two PL flags the last three years, the
BlueWave appear as strong as ever. Ichiro Suzuki and
Chris Donnels will lead the team's formidable offense. In
addition to a strong and deep pitching staff, made even
more powerful by the acquisition of high school star
Tomoya Kawaguchi, Orix has one of the best defenses in
either league. The BlueWave have proven experience where
the Buffaloes don't, and have fewer question marks than
the Lions. Look for Orix to prevail in a very close race.
Predicted
finish:
1.
Orix BlueWave
2. Seibu Lions
3. Kintetsu Buffaloes
4. Fukuoka Daiei Hawks
5. Chiba Lotte Marines
6. Nippon Ham Fighters
The Central League:
Though
the top spot is up for grabs, it's almost certain one of
two teams will occupy the loop's bottom rung.
Tigers:
Though the Hanshin Tigers made a step in the right
direction by hiring several potential foreign players,
they still won't have much of a mound staff, particularly
since number two starter Tetsuro Kawajiri will miss much
of the season, suspended for tax evasion. It's unlikely
former Chunichi sluggers Alonzo Powell and Yasuaki Taiho
will dramatically turn their careers around at Koshien, a
ballpark much less hitter-friendly than old Nagoya
Stadium. The defensive holes left by speedy shortstop
Teruyoshi Kuji and strong-arm outfielder Koichi Sekikawa
probably won't be adequately filled by their
replacements. Look for Hanshin to be out of the CL hunt
by July.
Carp:
Though a perpetually strong team, the Carp may be headed
for disaster. The transition to a younger generation of
pitchers is not yet complete, coming at a time when the
team loses top run producer Luis Lopez. Though the Carp
have a fast and powerful offense, it may not be enough to
keep up with a spotty mound crew. Aging Yutaka Ono won't
last forever, and 1995 Rookie of the Year Yasuaki
Yamauchi has struggled the last two years as CL batters
have adapted to his helter-skelter wind-up. In the long
run, the Carp will be contenders, but probably not in
1998.
BayStars:
Last September, the pressure finally caught-up with the
Yokohama BayStars and the team choked after getting
within 2.5 games of front-running Yakult. With relief ace
Kazuhiro Sasaki threatening to bolt to the Major Leagues
as soon as he becomes a free agent, Yokohama will be
under a lot of pressure to deliver a flag this year.
Several of their hitters and pitchers performed unusually
well in 1997, and it may be tough for them to repeat.
Manager Hiroshi Gondo's easygoing approach may not be
enough to shake his players from media-hyped delusions
that they are the chosen ones.
Giants:
The Giants fell apart in 1997 for six reasons: 1) an
aging and injured starting rotation; 2) an erratic
bullpen; 3) dreadful defense (particularly at third
base); 4) too-little, too-late offensive production from
free-agent first sacker Kazuhiro Kiyohara; 5) no speed on
the basepaths; 6) inept and inconsistent managing. Some
of those problems the Giants have fixed.
The
addition of Tadahito Nomura will bolster Yomiuri's
bullpen, new import Mariano Duncan can contribute with a
bat as well as guard the left side of the infield, and
"super rookie" Yoshinobu Takahashi may pick up
some of the slack on offense. But with a line-up of
power-hitters, the Giants need more runners who can put
themselves in scoring position. Yomiuri appears hopeful
that they'll score all of their runs from roundtrippers
because they haven't put much thought into how to advance
runners. Eric Hillman may never again pitch in Japan and
former ace Masaki Saito's readiness appears in question.
Retaining manager Shigeo Nagashima may have PR value, but
his bumbling mismanaging is the team's biggest handicap.
Dragons:
In 1997, Chunichi's winning strategy got lost in
the move to Nagoya Dome. The team that heavily relied on
small ballpark sluggers in the past, suddenly wilted when
they saw the big walls at the dome. With the acquisitions
of Teruyoshi Kuji, Koichi Sekikawa and Jeong Bum Lee
("the Korean Ichiro"), the Dragons will have a
much stronger defense and better speed along the base
paths. Despite Sawamaura Award runner-up Masato Yamamoto
and relief ace Dong Yol Sun, Chunichi's pitching woes may
continue. Shinji Imanaka and Ken Kadokura struggled last
season and other starters may not be ready to pick up the
slack.
Swallows:
If recent history is any indication, the Swallows should
probably finish fourth this season, as they have
following their last two Japan Series championships
(1993, '95). The loss of Masato Yoshii and Terry Bross,
however, may be eased by the transition of closer
Tomohito Ito (7-2, 19 saves, 1.51 ERA) to a starting
role, the promotion of Ryuji Miyade to the varsity team,
and a potential comeback from former Seibu ace Hisanobu
Watanabe, who pitched well in the pre-season. In addition
to ace starters Kazuhisa Ishii and Kazuya Tabata, the
Swallows feature an aging but effective middle relief
staff. Depth was the team's major asset in 1997, and may
be what keeps the Swallows from bottoming out this year.
In
each of the past five years when catcher Atsuya Furuta
has been healthy Yakult has gone all the way, and he's
looking good now except for a low pre-season batting
average. Still, offense may be the Swallows weak spot.
Reliable right fielder Atsunori Inaba (21 home runs in
1997) may not return from shoulder surgery until after
opening day and gold glove shortstop Shinya Miyamoto will
be out for nearly two months (suspended for tax evasion).
But look for '97 home run king Dwayne Hosey and newcomer
Lyle Mouton to pick up some of the slack. Yakult may get
off to a slow start, but they'll likely surge before the
all-star break.
It's
going to be a close race.
Predicted
Finish:
1.
Yakult Swallows
2. Chunichi Dragons
3. Yomiuri Giants
4. Yokohama BayStars
5. Hiroshima Carp
6. Hanshin Tigers
Japan
Series winner:
Yakult Swallows
PL MVP: Ichiro Suzuki
CL MVP: Lyle Mouton
Sawamura Award: Kazuhisa Ishii
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